Nov

Obama is going to win this election! Okay, so maybe you didn’t hear it here first. BUT, things are definitely looking good for the Obama camp.

I have been perusing the various polling sites I’ve been haunting for what feels like forever now, plus looking over notes from our friend Tony, who has been haunting even more sites than me. And … drumroll please … I am now prepared to enter my official prediction for this race:

OBAMA 382 McCain 156

Notwithstanding McCain’s attempts in Pennsylvania and New Hampshire, Obama will take all the Kerry states from 2004 (Kerry earned 252 electoral votes), PLUS: Iowa, Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada – those 4 seem pretty safe, and put Obama in the win column with 278 right there. I agree with fivethirtyeight.com that Obama will lose narrowly in Indiana, but I do think that Missouri will pull through, adding 11 more to the total (289). Then I think Obama will pick up both Ohio (20) and Florida (27). I have a nagging fear that one of those will slip away (most likely Ohio), but I will stick with predicting that both fall in the Obama camp. That would make it 336. I also think Obama is going to squeak by in both Virgina (13) and North Carolina (15), bringing us to 364. I also disagree with the predictions that North Dakota is going to stay red, I think Obama will win another close one there as well, making 367. And THEN, my big upset prediction that puts us over 375 and into official landslide territory – I think Obama is going to pull a big upset in Georgia, adding 15 more votes for a final total of 382. I do think there’s a non-trivial chance that McCain actually ends up losing his home state of Arizona, but I’m not confident enough of that to put it in the blue column.

Other official predictions (which probably carry more weight than mine! :

fivethiryeight.com – Obama 349, McCain 189

electoral-vote.com – Obama 353, McCain 174, with the 11 from Missouri still a tossup

pollster.com – they are wussy and not giving an official prediction, but they list a solid 291 for Obama, to 142 for McCain, with 105 still considered a tossup

CNN – Obama 291, McCain 157, 90 tossup

Our friend Tony has a somewhat schizo prediction his “gut” predicts Obama 367, McCain 171 (Kerry states plus Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, Virgina, Ohio, North Carolina, Florida, Nevada, Missouri and Montana). But his head says 273 (Kerry states plus Iowa, New Mexico and Colorado).

As for the Senate … much as I would love to see us filibuster-proof, it’s looking like we’ll have 59 seats, not quite reaching the magical 60. I think the Republicans campaigning for those contested seats have been doing a good job of scaring enough people away from “one party rule” that a couple of the close races are going to tilt Republican.

Well, enough predicting I guess, we’ll see soon enough. In 24 hours it will all be over!!! And you know, even if it’s not an Obama blowout, if he gets just 270 votes, all that matters is that we don’t get 4 more disastrous years just like the 8 we’ve suffered through under W.

I know a lot of you who read this think differently than me, and I respect that. The MOST important thing tomorrow is that ALL of us, whoever we’re for, VOTE. We MUST make our voice heard. I like my guy – you’ve probably figured that out by now. By government by the people only works if we participate in the process. It’s not just a right, it’s not just a privilege, it is a profound responsibility.

  

Related posts:

1. Election 2004 7:10 pm Central time
2. Election 2004 – 6:55 pm Central time
3. Debate # 3 …
4. Election 2004 7:45 pm Central time
5. Out of the mouths of babes

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