Aug

My friend Tony thinks it is a good pick, and so apparently does Ezra Klein : http://www.prospect.org/csnc/blogs/ezraklein_archive?month=08&year=2008&base_name=veepstakes_the_case_for_biden#106973 .

I am sure I will acclimate to it, but I’m not thrilled. I was a Sebelius fan myself. At least it’s not Hilary! And it was VERY cool that Obama announced first to all of his supporters, via text/email/website/etc.

  

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5 Comments »

1. 

   The only thing I was right on for this!

   I think he was far and away the best of the final four (Kaine, Sebelius, Bayh, and Biden). Saw some nice polling data that show he plays particularly well with older white voters. If McCain chooses anyone without good foreign policy chops, Biden’ll eat that person for lunch. He’s either 99th or 100th in income among senators, which helps on the “7 kitchen table” line. There were interesting positive statements from two prominent foreign policy Republicans, Hagel and Lugar.

   Stay tuned. I give it a B+ or A-.
   Hope your cold is better.

   Comment by Tony — כד אב תשסח @ 1:31 pm

2. 

   This might help you feel better about Biden…

   http://www.prospect

   Comment by Tony — כד אב תשסח @ 12:52 pm

3. 

   Actually, it does. But I still think Sibelius was the better choice.

   What did you think of Michelle’s speech? Putting myself into the mindset of an undecided (female) voter, I think it may have been effective at getting out the message that he really cares about people and their welfare. Not sure if it was as effective for men.

   All the talk of Obama slipping in the polls is making me very nervous.

   Comment by leslie — כה אב תשסח @ 10:00 pm

4. 

   Glad it helped. I’m impressed by Sibelius.

   I misted up a bit at Michelle’s talk. She was really wonderful. To the extent that the Republican strategy is to paint a caricature of a these people as crazy terrorists, the film and talk should help, at least if people watched some.

   Kennedy’s talk helped, I think.

   I’m really peeved that the networks didn’t show Jim Leach’s talk. A former Republican congressman talks eloquently and intelligently about why Obama should be elected and it gets no attention. When Zell Miller went postal, it did. Geez.

   As to the polls…I understand being nervous. I want to see where they are after the conventions. But I’m most worried about the talk. I have just been stunningly appalled at the coverage of this thing. The Obamas are simply stunning. McCain has been a jerk. And the coverage gives McCain a free pass, though I gather that on MSNBC, Keith Olberman and Rachel Maddow are challenging the facile right wing talking points.

   As to the polls….pollster.com shows Obama up by 1.8% and ticking upwards, though McCain is also ticking upwards.

   Most key are the electoral votes. The realclearpolitics surveys (which actually have Obama up by 2% and suggests Obama going up, McCain flattening) show Obama ahead by at least 4% in all of the Kerry states except New Hampshire, where he leads by 0.3%. Obama is also ahead in three Bush 2004 states, Iowa by 5.3%, Colorado by 1.2%, and New Mexico by 1.0%. If things hold at those percentages, Obama wins. It’s also a dead tie in Virginia. And McCain is only narrowly ahead in other Bush states, Ohio by 1.2%, Nevada by 3%, Indiana by 3.7%, and Florida by 3.8%. They don’t include Alaska, where pollster.com shows Obama up 2.7%, Montana, where he’s up 3.1%, or North Dakota, where he’s only down 2.4%. Of course, those are undersurveyed states.

   It’s a nervous time, but I’m optimistic. All I can tell says that Obama is doing a lot more with the ground game, which should help. The Clintons had best nail it these next two days. If they do, and Biden and Barack do, then Obama benefits from a bunch of Democrats coming home….

   Ack. Not sure I’ll sleep till November.

   Comment by Tony — כה אב תשסח @ 10:45 am

5. 

   followup.

   I looked at polls that realclearpolitics lists as having been conducted with data collected from 8/15 on that also had data entirely from the later part of July.
   1 shows Obama having gained 7 points (USA Today from -4 to +3)
   1 shows Obama having gained 2 points (Fox, from +1 to +3)
   1 shows Obama having gained 1 point (ABC, from +3 to +4)
   2 show Obama having lost 3 points (CBS and NBC, from +6 to +3)
   1 shows Obama having lost 7 points (CNN from +7 to tie)

   The CNN poll by itself looks terrible. The USA Today poll looks great. But overall, they average to a loss of .5% over the course of the month. That’s not a bad approximation from what I can tell with state polls included. Obama is leading, narrowly, but it’s tightened a bit.

   Now will he get fair coverage?

   Comment by Tony — כה אב תשסח @ 10:57 am

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